There’s a lot of news from the past few days regarding the aircraft industry. Of extreme interest is this Flight article on Boeing’s 737 replacement study, which is investigating demand and requirements for small jets over the next few decades. Flight’s article includes a concept (right) that looks much like a small 787, suggesting Boeing will leverage technology they’re now introducing. In a similar vein to the new study, Boeing also plans to end 717 production this May; this leaves a gap in their market coverage but also removes an aircraft inherited from the McDonnell Douglas merger. Overall, it was probably a good decision – the cockpit wasn’t compatible with other Boeing products, for one.

So, Boeing’s lineup doesn’t cover the small end at all anymore. Either does Airbus – the A318 still carries over 100 passengers, and has relatively poor range. Embraer has been selling their new E-Jets like hotcakes to some major US carriers – JetBlue even broke out of the single-fleet model (however unwise that might later prove). Right now, the smaller end of the commercial jet market breaks down like so:

• small regional jets, like the Bombardier CRJ and Embraer ERJ series, which carry between 40 and 70 passengers. There are smaller and larger variants of both jets, but the CRJs are getting ridiculously long and have undoubtedly reached their airframe extension limits.
• larger regional jets, a market exclusive to Embraer’s E-Jets (right). The E170 picks up at the large end of the small RJ market, seating between 70 and 85 passengers, while the E190 seats around 95 to 120. Bombardier recently – and probably wisely, based on the utter lack of airline interest – canceled their proposed entry into this market.
• small airliners include the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, with the Embraer E195 sneaking in at the low end. Boeing and Airbus products carry a wide range of passengers (~110 to 215) with identical cockpits, making them much more desirable if there is any potential for expansion on a route.

The low-demand turboprop markets can, I think, be safely ignored, though I personally prefer them. More on this in the future. Since the introduction of the regional jet, airlines have banked on the ( perhaps assumed?) popularity of jets over turboprops. With that in mind, Embraer is the only manufacturer heavily invested in all three major jet markets. The small regional market is on a decline, as more major US carriers go bankrupt and start shedding their regional contracts.

So, back to the beginning: Boeing’s looking at both a 737 replacement (Yellowstone 1) and a new, smaller regional jet – probably one that would compete with the Embraer series. It’s safe to assume that Airbus is considering similar options for their A320 series. What happens when all three have aircraft filling the same niche? The airliner and small regional markets are each dominated by two manufacturers, while larger regionals are only built by Embraer.

If Boeing and Airbus both produce an equivalent, we’re going to have a repeat of the DC-10 / L-1011 debacle. Douglas built the DC-10 to fill the gap behind 747s, while at the same time Lockheed built the L-1011 for the same market; both companies were effectively driven out of the commercial aircraft market. Embraer has a head start, and a huge one – would Boeing and Airbus entering that market affect their overall profits? Interestingly, Airbus just closed down A300 and A310 production after years of poor sales. The two designs not only competed with each other and the Boeing 767, but also on a lesser scale with Airbus’ own A330 – and now the A350 as well. I’m no expert, but it seems that Airbus should have consolidated their product line and eliminated overlaps some time ago; it remains to be seen what long-term effects their earlier decisions will have.